Replace indicated by the book-value rule. The unit is fully depreciated (book value is $0.00). With a repair quote on file of $5,000.00, any non‑zero repair exceeds the “200% of book value” limit, so this threshold fired and points to replacement. Other levers were tested but are not needed once this one triggers. The missing hour‑meter does not affect this comparison.
Figures used
- facts.economics.book_value = 0.0
- facts.quote.amount = 5000.0
- facts.thresholds.values.quote_pct_of_book_value = 200.0
Rules cited
- “quote_pct_of_book_value”
From v1.0 draft (consolidated, unapproved), saved by consolidation (pending Matt's review). This decision is permanently tied to that version even if the rules change later.
Threshold check
t1.4 2026-08-26 · compared in code, not by the model
ALL BAND
no mature age is set, so every lever is tested.
| Lever | This unit | Replace at | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Replace when a repair reaches economics.book_value |
None % of book value | 200.0 % of book value | AT OR OVER |
The unit
Full history →- Unit
- FL-00010
- Make / model
- Hyster S55XM
- Power
- propane · 5,300 lb
- Site
- San Diego, California
- Age
- 28.3 yrs (acquired 1998-06-15)
- Hour meter
- —
- Hours / year
- —
- Readings
- 0
- Invoices
- 5
- Last service
- 2026-06-22
- Spend seen
- $2,080.96
- Trailing 12mo
- $2,080.96
- Replacement
- $45,000
- Quote / repl.
- 11.1%
- Spend / repl.
- 4.6%
Known gaps in the evidence
- no plausible hour-meter reading exists for this unit — utilisation is unknown
Repair history behind this
| Service date | Vendor | Type | Total | Flags | Document |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | SCOLARI | tires | $579.25 | BLACKBOX_LABOR NO_METER | 4834050_Auto9f877951-70b0-48cc-968e-33cc39b32d64~APWH_20260622173700_1.pdf |
| 2026-06-10 | SCOLARI | pm | $340.00 | BLACKBOX_LABOR NO_METER | 12.pdf |
| 2026-03-11 | SCOLARI | repair | $105.00 | BLACKBOX_LABOR NO_METER | 4566186_Auto22877de0-9a32-4b90-a76a-b968a58e5475~APWH_20260311225807.pdf |
| 2026-01-21 | SCOLARI | repair | $816.71 | BLACKBOX_LABOR NO_METER | 4386759_Autocdbf230f-19dc-4c5a-96ce-ddd5b2c7a3af~APWH_20260121160209.pdf |
| 2026-01-13 | SCOLARI | pm | $240.00 | BLACKBOX_LABOR NO_METER | 4379271_Auto61406b1c-51ed-46be-b0fe-ea5da4d1bf3f~APWH_20260113210208.pdf |
What did you actually do?
Recording the real outcome is what lets this tool be backtested against Matt's judgement. It takes a click.
Outcomes are recorded under a named account. Sign in to record what was done.
Full facts record (d0.2 · openai:gpt-5)
{
"as_of": "2026-10-01",
"asset": {
"acquire_date": "1998-06-15",
"age_years": 28.3,
"asset_id": "FL-00010",
"capacity_lbs": 5300,
"make": "Hyster",
"model": "S55XM",
"power_type": "propane",
"serial": "D187V11662V",
"site_name": "San Diego, California",
"source": "asset_master",
"status": "active",
"wh_code": "CASD"
},
"coverage": {
"invoice_window_end": "2026-07-28",
"invoice_window_months": 33,
"invoice_window_start": "2023-10-19",
"invoices_in_system": 2108
},
"data_gaps": [
"no plausible hour-meter reading exists for this unit \u2014 utilisation is unknown"
],
"economics": {
"book_value": 0.0,
"book_value_basis": "(1 - 28.3/10) x $32,000, floored at 0",
"est_acquisition_cost": 32000,
"est_replacement_cost": 45000,
"est_useful_life_yrs": 10,
"fully_depreciated": true
},
"found": true,
"history": [
{
"doc_type": "tires",
"file_ref": "4834050_Auto9f877951-70b0-48cc-968e-33cc39b32d64~APWH_20260622173700_1.pdf",
"flag_codes": "NO_PO;BLACKBOX_LABOR;NO_METER",
"invoice_id": 2027,
"needs_review": 0,
"on_date": "2026-06-22",
"total": 579.25,
"vendor_id": "SCOLARI"
},
{
"doc_type": "pm",
"file_ref": "12.pdf",
"flag_codes": "NO_PO;BLACKBOX_LABOR;NO_METER",
"invoice_id": 12,
"needs_review": 0,
"on_date": "2026-06-10",
"total": 340.0,
"vendor_id": "SCOLARI"
},
{
"doc_type": "repair",
"file_ref": "4566186_Auto22877de0-9a32-4b90-a76a-b968a58e5475~APWH_20260311225807.pdf",
"flag_codes": "BLACKBOX_LABOR;NO_PO;NO_METER",
"invoice_id": 501,
"needs_review": 0,
"on_date": "2026-03-11",
"total": 105.0,
"vendor_id": "SCOLARI"
},
{
"doc_type": "repair",
"file_ref": "4386759_Autocdbf230f-19dc-4c5a-96ce-ddd5b2c7a3af~APWH_20260121160209.pdf",
"flag_codes": "NO_PO;BLACKBOX_LABOR;NO_METER",
"invoice_id": 194,
"needs_review": 0,
"on_date": "2026-01-21",
"total": 816.71,
"vendor_id": "SCOLARI"
},
{
"doc_type": "pm",
"file_ref": "4379271_Auto61406b1c-51ed-46be-b0fe-ea5da4d1bf3f~APWH_20260113210208.pdf",
"flag_codes": "NO_PO;BLACKBOX_LABOR;NO_METER",
"invoice_id": 132,
"needs_review": 0,
"on_date": "2026-01-13",
"total": 240.0,
"vendor_id": "SCOLARI"
}
],
"meter": {
"est_hours_per_year": null,
"implausible_readings": 0,
"last_reading_date": null,
"last_reading_hours": null,
"readings_on_file": 0
},
"quote": {
"amount": 5000.0,
"source": "comment",
"symptom_text": "Needs $5000 repair because of hydraulic problem",
"vendor_id": null
},
"ratios": {
"age_pct_of_est_useful_life": 283.0,
"lifetime_spend_seen_pct_of_replacement": 4.6,
"quote_pct_of_book_value": null,
"quote_pct_of_replacement": 11.1,
"quote_plus_ttm_pct_of_replacement": 15.7,
"spend_seen_per_meter_hour": null,
"ttm_spend_pct_of_replacement": 4.6
},
"replacement_benchmark": {
"as_of": "2026-08-25",
"est_replacement_cost": 45000,
"est_useful_life_yrs": 10,
"matched_by": "power type + capacity band",
"model_match": null,
"source": "market research 2026-08 (inferred, pending dealer quotes)"
},
"spend": {
"invoices_matched": 5,
"last_service_date": "2026-06-22",
"lifetime_spend_seen": 2080.96,
"out_of_scope_invoices": 0,
"out_of_scope_spend": 0.0,
"ttm_invoice_count": 5,
"ttm_repair_count": 2,
"ttm_spend": 2080.96
},
"thresholds": {
"band": {
"band": "all",
"reason": "no mature age is set, so every lever is tested",
"single_repair_levers": true
},
"clear_repair": null,
"fired": [
{
"label": "Replace when a repair reaches",
"limit": 200.0,
"note": "unit is fully depreciated \u2014 book value is $0, so any repair exceeds this threshold",
"observed": null,
"source": "economics.book_value",
"threshold": "quote_pct_of_book_value",
"unit": "% of book value"
}
],
"mapped_recommendation": "replace",
"retired": [
"replace_age_years",
"replace_meter_hours"
],
"skipped": [],
"threshold_version_id": 5,
"untestable": [],
"values": {
"lifetime_spend_pct_of_replacement": 200.0,
"max_repairs_ttm": 4.0,
"max_single_repair_usd": 10000.0,
"max_ttm_spend_usd": 20000.0,
"quote_pct_of_book_value": 200.0,
"quote_pct_of_replacement": 25.0,
"repair_below_quote_pct": 5.0,
"replace_age_years": 20.0,
"replace_meter_hours": 20000.0,
"ttm_spend_pct_of_replacement": 50.0
},
"verdict": "replace_indicated",
"version_label": "t1.4 2026-08-26"
}
}