Recommendation: replace.
Why: The thresholds engine flagged the “quote vs. book value” lever. This unit is fully depreciated with a book value of $0.0, and the active threshold replaces when a repair reaches 200% of book value. With a non‑zero repair quote of $5,000.0, any amount exceeds that threshold, so the replace indication was triggered.
Notes: Other levers were tested but did not need to fire once this one did. The missing hour‑meter does not affect this comparison and does not block the decision.
Figures used
- facts.quote.amount = 5000.0
- facts.economics.book_value = 0.0
- facts.thresholds.values.quote_pct_of_book_value = 200.0
Rules cited
- “quote_pct_of_book_value”
From v1.0 draft (consolidated, unapproved), saved by consolidation (pending Matt's review). This decision is permanently tied to that version even if the rules change later.
Threshold check
t1.4 2026-08-26 · compared in code, not by the model
ALL BAND
no mature age is set, so every lever is tested.
| Lever | This unit | Replace at | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Replace when a repair reaches economics.book_value |
None % of book value | 200.0 % of book value | AT OR OVER |
The unit
Full history →- Unit
- FL-00010
- Make / model
- Hyster S55XM
- Power
- propane · 5,300 lb
- Site
- San Diego, California
- Age
- 28.21 yrs (acquired 1998-06-15)
- Hour meter
- —
- Hours / year
- —
- Readings
- 0
- Invoices
- 5
- Last service
- 2026-06-22
- Spend seen
- $2,080.96
- Trailing 12mo
- $2,080.96
- Replacement
- $45,000
- Quote / repl.
- 11.1%
- Spend / repl.
- 4.6%
Known gaps in the evidence
- no plausible hour-meter reading exists for this unit — utilisation is unknown
Repair history behind this
| Service date | Vendor | Type | Total | Flags | Document |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-22 | SCOLARI | tires | $579.25 | BLACKBOX_LABOR NO_METER | 4834050_Auto9f877951-70b0-48cc-968e-33cc39b32d64~APWH_20260622173700_1.pdf |
| 2026-06-10 | SCOLARI | pm | $340.00 | BLACKBOX_LABOR NO_METER | 12.pdf |
| 2026-03-11 | SCOLARI | repair | $105.00 | BLACKBOX_LABOR NO_METER | 4566186_Auto22877de0-9a32-4b90-a76a-b968a58e5475~APWH_20260311225807.pdf |
| 2026-01-21 | SCOLARI | repair | $816.71 | BLACKBOX_LABOR NO_METER | 4386759_Autocdbf230f-19dc-4c5a-96ce-ddd5b2c7a3af~APWH_20260121160209.pdf |
| 2026-01-13 | SCOLARI | pm | $240.00 | BLACKBOX_LABOR NO_METER | 4379271_Auto61406b1c-51ed-46be-b0fe-ea5da4d1bf3f~APWH_20260113210208.pdf |
What did you actually do?
Recording the real outcome is what lets this tool be backtested against Matt's judgement. It takes a click.
Outcomes are recorded under a named account. Sign in to record what was done.
Full facts record (d0.2 · openai:gpt-5)
{
"as_of": "2026-09-01",
"asset": {
"acquire_date": "1998-06-15",
"age_years": 28.21,
"asset_id": "FL-00010",
"capacity_lbs": 5300,
"make": "Hyster",
"model": "S55XM",
"power_type": "propane",
"serial": "D187V11662V",
"site_name": "San Diego, California",
"source": "asset_master",
"status": "active",
"wh_code": "CASD"
},
"coverage": {
"invoice_window_end": "2026-07-28",
"invoice_window_months": 33,
"invoice_window_start": "2023-10-19",
"invoices_in_system": 2108
},
"data_gaps": [
"no plausible hour-meter reading exists for this unit \u2014 utilisation is unknown"
],
"economics": {
"book_value": 0.0,
"book_value_basis": "(1 - 28.2/10) x $32,000, floored at 0",
"est_acquisition_cost": 32000,
"est_replacement_cost": 45000,
"est_useful_life_yrs": 10,
"fully_depreciated": true
},
"found": true,
"history": [
{
"doc_type": "tires",
"file_ref": "4834050_Auto9f877951-70b0-48cc-968e-33cc39b32d64~APWH_20260622173700_1.pdf",
"flag_codes": "NO_PO;BLACKBOX_LABOR;NO_METER",
"invoice_id": 2027,
"needs_review": 0,
"on_date": "2026-06-22",
"total": 579.25,
"vendor_id": "SCOLARI"
},
{
"doc_type": "pm",
"file_ref": "12.pdf",
"flag_codes": "NO_PO;BLACKBOX_LABOR;NO_METER",
"invoice_id": 12,
"needs_review": 0,
"on_date": "2026-06-10",
"total": 340.0,
"vendor_id": "SCOLARI"
},
{
"doc_type": "repair",
"file_ref": "4566186_Auto22877de0-9a32-4b90-a76a-b968a58e5475~APWH_20260311225807.pdf",
"flag_codes": "BLACKBOX_LABOR;NO_PO;NO_METER",
"invoice_id": 501,
"needs_review": 0,
"on_date": "2026-03-11",
"total": 105.0,
"vendor_id": "SCOLARI"
},
{
"doc_type": "repair",
"file_ref": "4386759_Autocdbf230f-19dc-4c5a-96ce-ddd5b2c7a3af~APWH_20260121160209.pdf",
"flag_codes": "NO_PO;BLACKBOX_LABOR;NO_METER",
"invoice_id": 194,
"needs_review": 0,
"on_date": "2026-01-21",
"total": 816.71,
"vendor_id": "SCOLARI"
},
{
"doc_type": "pm",
"file_ref": "4379271_Auto61406b1c-51ed-46be-b0fe-ea5da4d1bf3f~APWH_20260113210208.pdf",
"flag_codes": "NO_PO;BLACKBOX_LABOR;NO_METER",
"invoice_id": 132,
"needs_review": 0,
"on_date": "2026-01-13",
"total": 240.0,
"vendor_id": "SCOLARI"
}
],
"meter": {
"est_hours_per_year": null,
"implausible_readings": 0,
"last_reading_date": null,
"last_reading_hours": null,
"readings_on_file": 0
},
"quote": {
"amount": 5000.0,
"source": "comment",
"symptom_text": "needs $5000",
"vendor_id": null
},
"ratios": {
"age_pct_of_est_useful_life": 282.1,
"lifetime_spend_seen_pct_of_replacement": 4.6,
"quote_pct_of_book_value": null,
"quote_pct_of_replacement": 11.1,
"quote_plus_ttm_pct_of_replacement": 15.7,
"spend_seen_per_meter_hour": null,
"ttm_spend_pct_of_replacement": 4.6
},
"replacement_benchmark": {
"as_of": "2026-08-25",
"est_replacement_cost": 45000,
"est_useful_life_yrs": 10,
"matched_by": "power type + capacity band",
"model_match": null,
"source": "market research 2026-08 (inferred, pending dealer quotes)"
},
"spend": {
"invoices_matched": 5,
"last_service_date": "2026-06-22",
"lifetime_spend_seen": 2080.96,
"out_of_scope_invoices": 0,
"out_of_scope_spend": 0.0,
"ttm_invoice_count": 5,
"ttm_repair_count": 2,
"ttm_spend": 2080.96
},
"thresholds": {
"band": {
"band": "all",
"reason": "no mature age is set, so every lever is tested",
"single_repair_levers": true
},
"clear_repair": null,
"fired": [
{
"label": "Replace when a repair reaches",
"limit": 200.0,
"note": "unit is fully depreciated \u2014 book value is $0, so any repair exceeds this threshold",
"observed": null,
"source": "economics.book_value",
"threshold": "quote_pct_of_book_value",
"unit": "% of book value"
}
],
"mapped_recommendation": "replace",
"retired": [
"replace_age_years",
"replace_meter_hours"
],
"skipped": [],
"threshold_version_id": 5,
"untestable": [],
"values": {
"lifetime_spend_pct_of_replacement": 200.0,
"max_repairs_ttm": 4.0,
"max_single_repair_usd": 10000.0,
"max_ttm_spend_usd": 20000.0,
"quote_pct_of_book_value": 200.0,
"quote_pct_of_replacement": 25.0,
"repair_below_quote_pct": 5.0,
"replace_age_years": 20.0,
"replace_meter_hours": 20000.0,
"ttm_spend_pct_of_replacement": 50.0
},
"verdict": "replace_indicated",
"version_label": "t1.4 2026-08-26"
}
}