Recommendation is replace based on the thresholds engine. The repeat‑repair threshold fired: this unit had 7 repairs in the last 12 months against a limit of 4.0. That repeat‑repair pattern is what indicates replacement. For context, the current hypothetical quote is small relative to the replacement benchmark: $300 equals 0.7% of the $44,000 replacement cost, which is below the 5.0% small‑repair floor; that would support repairing a one‑off issue. However, the decision trigger here is the exceeded 12‑month repair count, so the mapped recommendation is replace. No inputs were untestable and there are no listed data gaps blocking this decision.
Figures used
- facts.thresholds.fired[0].observed = 7
- facts.thresholds.values.max_repairs_ttm = 4.0
- facts.spend.ttm_repair_count = 7
- facts.quote.amount = 300.0
- facts.economics.est_replacement_cost = 44000
- facts.ratios.quote_pct_of_replacement = 0.7
- facts.thresholds.clear_repair.limit = 5.0
- facts.thresholds.clear_repair.observed = 0.7
- facts.coverage.invoice_window_months = 33
Rules cited
- “max_repairs_ttm”
From v1.0 draft (consolidated, unapproved), saved by consolidation (pending Matt's review). This decision is permanently tied to that version even if the rules change later.
Threshold check
t1.4 2026-08-26 · compared in code, not by the model
ALL BAND
no mature age is set, so every lever is tested.
| Lever | This unit | Replace at | Reading |
|---|---|---|---|
| Flag when repairs in 12 months reach spend.ttm_repair_count |
7 repairs | 4.0 repairs | AT OR OVER |
| Quote is under the clear-repair line | 0.7% | 5.0% | UNDER |
The unit
Full history →- Unit
- FL-00870
- Make / model
- Unicarriers MCT1B2L25S
- Power
- electric · 4,400 lb
- Site
- 45 Brunswick (Tiles), New Jersey
- Age
- 4.01 yrs (acquired 2022-08-30)
- Hour meter
- 8,678 @ 2026-06-19
- Hours / year
- 2,317
- Readings
- 7
- Invoices
- 7
- Last service
- 2026-06-19
- Spend seen
- $2,312.49
- Trailing 12mo
- $2,312.49
- Replacement
- $44,000
- Quote / repl.
- 0.7%
- Spend / repl.
- 5.3%
Repair history behind this
| Service date | Vendor | Type | Total | Flags | Document |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2026-06-19 | HERCULES | repair | $118.83 | CONSUMABLE_FLAT | 4919675_Autoa1284520-f010-49a1-9fb9-6a17d3829331~APWH_20260707150511.pdf |
| 2026-06-19 | HERCULES | repair | $238.63 | FAVORABLE INVOICE_LAG | 4.pdf |
| 2026-03-19 | HERCULES | repair | $145.47 | CONSUMABLE_FLAT | 4598371_Auto0ddcacce-f9c2-46eb-ae76-fa50fbf4bc96~APWH_20260323215738_1.pdf |
| 2026-03-19 | HERCULES | repair | $209.45 | FAVORABLE CONSUMABLE_FLAT | 4605502_Autoccf4dcf4-630c-4045-83d1-5067efcb6cf7~APWH_20260330120020.pdf |
| 2026-02-05 | HERCULES | repair | $155.02 | FAVORABLE | 4442563_Auto2a53d824-4af2-47ab-94f9-d3837c57ebae~APWH_20260217090223_1.pdf |
| 2026-01-30 | HERCULES | repair | $1,109.27 | FAVORABLE CONSUMABLE_FLAT | 4401418_Auto25dcd2a4-898a-4a61-9981-da784201c146~APWH_20260205123219.pdf |
| 2025-12-02 | HERCULES | repair | $335.82 | FAVORABLE INVOICE_LAG | 4346979_Autoff55485c-3d67-46eb-95b7-f9f692e79bb8~APWH_20251230113220.pdf |
What did you actually do?
Recording the real outcome is what lets this tool be backtested against Matt's judgement. It takes a click.
Outcomes are recorded under a named account. Sign in to record what was done.
Full facts record (d0.2 · openai:gpt-5)
{
"as_of": "2026-09-01",
"asset": {
"acquire_date": "2022-08-30",
"age_years": 4.01,
"asset_id": "FL-00870",
"capacity_lbs": 4400,
"make": "Unicarriers",
"model": "MCT1B2L25S",
"power_type": "electric",
"serial": "CT1B2-985866",
"site_name": "45 Brunswick (Tiles), New Jersey",
"source": "asset_master",
"status": "active",
"wh_code": "NJED-45"
},
"coverage": {
"invoice_window_end": "2026-07-28",
"invoice_window_months": 33,
"invoice_window_start": "2023-10-19",
"invoices_in_system": 2108
},
"data_gaps": [],
"economics": {
"book_value": 17970.0,
"book_value_basis": "(1 - 4.0/10) x $30,000, floored at 0",
"est_acquisition_cost": 30000,
"est_replacement_cost": 44000,
"est_useful_life_yrs": 10,
"fully_depreciated": false
},
"found": true,
"history": [
{
"doc_type": "repair",
"file_ref": "4919675_Autoa1284520-f010-49a1-9fb9-6a17d3829331~APWH_20260707150511.pdf",
"flag_codes": "NO_PO;CONSUMABLE_FLAT",
"invoice_id": 1286,
"needs_review": 0,
"on_date": "2026-06-19",
"total": 118.83,
"vendor_id": "HERCULES"
},
{
"doc_type": "repair",
"file_ref": "4.pdf",
"flag_codes": "NO_PO;FAVORABLE;INVOICE_LAG",
"invoice_id": 4,
"needs_review": 0,
"on_date": "2026-06-19",
"total": 238.63,
"vendor_id": "HERCULES"
},
{
"doc_type": "repair",
"file_ref": "4598371_Auto0ddcacce-f9c2-46eb-ae76-fa50fbf4bc96~APWH_20260323215738_1.pdf",
"flag_codes": "NO_PO;CONSUMABLE_FLAT",
"invoice_id": 1550,
"needs_review": 0,
"on_date": "2026-03-19",
"total": 145.47,
"vendor_id": "HERCULES"
},
{
"doc_type": "repair",
"file_ref": "4605502_Autoccf4dcf4-630c-4045-83d1-5067efcb6cf7~APWH_20260330120020.pdf",
"flag_codes": "NO_PO;FAVORABLE;CONSUMABLE_FLAT",
"invoice_id": 629,
"needs_review": 0,
"on_date": "2026-03-19",
"total": 209.45,
"vendor_id": "HERCULES"
},
{
"doc_type": "repair",
"file_ref": "4442563_Auto2a53d824-4af2-47ab-94f9-d3837c57ebae~APWH_20260217090223_1.pdf",
"flag_codes": "NO_PO;FAVORABLE",
"invoice_id": 1543,
"needs_review": 0,
"on_date": "2026-02-05",
"total": 155.02,
"vendor_id": "HERCULES"
},
{
"doc_type": "repair",
"file_ref": "4401418_Auto25dcd2a4-898a-4a61-9981-da784201c146~APWH_20260205123219.pdf",
"flag_codes": "NO_PO;FAVORABLE;CONSUMABLE_FLAT",
"invoice_id": 298,
"needs_review": 0,
"on_date": "2026-01-30",
"total": 1109.27,
"vendor_id": "HERCULES"
},
{
"doc_type": "repair",
"file_ref": "4346979_Autoff55485c-3d67-46eb-95b7-f9f692e79bb8~APWH_20251230113220.pdf",
"flag_codes": "NO_PO;FAVORABLE;INVOICE_LAG",
"invoice_id": 34,
"needs_review": 0,
"on_date": "2025-12-02",
"total": 335.82,
"vendor_id": "HERCULES"
}
],
"meter": {
"est_hours_per_year": 2317,
"implausible_readings": 0,
"last_reading_date": "2026-06-19",
"last_reading_hours": 8678,
"readings_on_file": 7
},
"quote": {
"amount": 300.0,
"source": "comment",
"symptom_text": "Hypothetical follow-up repair being considered, exploring before a real quote is in hand",
"vendor_id": null
},
"ratios": {
"age_pct_of_est_useful_life": 40.1,
"lifetime_spend_seen_pct_of_replacement": 5.3,
"quote_pct_of_book_value": 1.7,
"quote_pct_of_replacement": 0.7,
"quote_plus_ttm_pct_of_replacement": 5.9,
"spend_seen_per_meter_hour": 0.27,
"ttm_spend_pct_of_replacement": 5.3
},
"replacement_benchmark": {
"as_of": "2026-08-25",
"est_replacement_cost": 44000,
"est_useful_life_yrs": 10,
"matched_by": "power type + capacity band",
"model_match": null,
"source": "market research 2026-08 (inferred, pending dealer quotes)"
},
"spend": {
"invoices_matched": 7,
"last_service_date": "2026-06-19",
"lifetime_spend_seen": 2312.49,
"out_of_scope_invoices": 0,
"out_of_scope_spend": 0.0,
"ttm_invoice_count": 7,
"ttm_repair_count": 7,
"ttm_spend": 2312.49
},
"thresholds": {
"band": {
"band": "all",
"reason": "no mature age is set, so every lever is tested",
"single_repair_levers": true
},
"clear_repair": {
"limit": 5.0,
"observed": 0.7,
"threshold": "repair_below_quote_pct",
"unit": "%"
},
"fired": [
{
"label": "Flag when repairs in 12 months reach",
"limit": 4.0,
"observed": 7,
"source": "spend.ttm_repair_count",
"threshold": "max_repairs_ttm",
"unit": "repairs"
}
],
"mapped_recommendation": "replace",
"retired": [
"replace_age_years",
"replace_meter_hours"
],
"skipped": [],
"threshold_version_id": 5,
"untestable": [],
"values": {
"lifetime_spend_pct_of_replacement": 200.0,
"max_repairs_ttm": 4.0,
"max_single_repair_usd": 10000.0,
"max_ttm_spend_usd": 20000.0,
"quote_pct_of_book_value": 200.0,
"quote_pct_of_replacement": 25.0,
"repair_below_quote_pct": 5.0,
"replace_age_years": 20.0,
"replace_meter_hours": 20000.0,
"ttm_spend_pct_of_replacement": 50.0
},
"verdict": "replace_indicated",
"version_label": "t1.4 2026-08-26"
}
}